Demise of the European Union?

[Eagle]

I just watched the latest BBC News and there seems to be a lot of interest in the vote which will take place in France tomorrow, regarding whether to accept or reject the EU Consitution. Voting has already started in overseas French territories such as St. Pierre & Miquelon. Most of the polls have indicated that the "No" side has a clear lead, however the analysts say that won't necessarily be the same result in the polling booths.

The French seem to be worried about a loss of autonomy and more urgently a loss of jobs or whatever to the new eastern European countries which will be joining the EU within two years. These "new" countries have an advantage in cheaper labour and other costs, so the concern is that they will pull jobs out of France.

Another issue that seems to be raising concern is that the Dutch will be holding a similar vote in a few weeks (sometime in June). The polls seem to indicate that the Dutch are also leaning towards the "No" side. I haven't heard anything on whether this will be repeated in other countries? Perhaps the "domino effect" will occur, and a number of countries will vote to refect the EU???

Hopefully our GFE members on the other side of the pond can clarify the issues and help us understand what this means? I'm not looking forward to going back to the "dark ages" and having to use Lire, Deutchmarks, Francs or whatever when I'm travelling.

Cheers!!!

[MuvverRussia]

The EU (Eastern European) expansion has already taken place (May 2004). This has led to companies pulling jobs out of Western European nations due to lower production costs - a number of UK based companies have already relocated production from the UK to countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Personally, even a no vote will only be a minor setback. EU politicians have a habit of always getting their own way (much like Tony Blair in that respect) and even the hardest Eurosceptic will agree that continued membership of the EU will draw the members together. Almost certainly, the constitution will be redrafted then put through again.

Overall, a no vote for the EU constitution will result in no change. The Euro is here to stay (unless countries were to take drastic action and leave the EMU), as is the EU.

Also, should citizens of French overseas territories have the right to vote in a referendum for the EU constitution? If it's like the UK, the overseas territories aren't actually EU members (e.g. Gibraltar etc).

[me]

Gibraltar not part of EU? i had no idea! it certainly fits in Europe, geographically.

muvverrussia said:

Also, should citizens of French overseas territories have the right to vote in a referendum for the EU constitution? If it's like the UK, the overseas territories aren't actually EU members (e.g. Gibraltar etc).

can a Euro-zone country actually exit EMU, and still be in EU? for that matter, i read that there is no way to exit EU, unless this constitution/treaty is ratified. i understand that this treaty is the 1st to detail a way to leave EU. that earlier treaties were silent on the issue.

muvverrussia said:

Overall, a no vote for the EU constitution will result in no change. The Euro is here to stay (unless countries were to take drastic action and leave the EMU), as is the EU.

[Eagle]

Muvver, thanks for the reply. That's exactly the type of feedback I was hoping for! Perhaps it's not as serious as the news reports make it sound? Wonder which way the Dutch will vote?

[MuvverRussia]

Gibraltar is non EU, as are the UK Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Spanish Canary Islands and numerous other examples.

The UK exited the ERM and therefore the ECU (the precursor to EMU) back in 1987 after we realised that pegging the GBP to the Deutschmark wasn't the way forward (or in other words, John Major's government screwed up), so each country does have some degree of flexibility regarding the single currency. However, I'd assume that this isn't feasible now, especially after the economies have been running under single monetary policy.

I've no idea about the Dutch vote - it'll be interesting to watch. The whole EU constitution thing is over hyped though and regardless of what happens they'll work out a way of bringing it in.

[me]

looks like the French have said "non" to the constitution/treaty. how "Nice" of them!

now the pols will have to find another way, i guess.

- d

[daliwithatrolley]

me said:

looks like the French have said "non" to the constitution/treaty. how "Nice" of them!

<sigh>

[Cat]

eagle said:

Wonder which way the Dutch will vote?

We are going to vote tomorrow. My guess is that it will turn out to be a 'no'. Last time I checked the polls it was 55-45 in favour of 'no'.

The whole dutch voting system regarding the european constitution is kind of a farce really. Even when we do vote in majority against the european constitution, the gouvernement will still choose their own course. Which will be a 'yes'. The French actually acknowledged the opinion of the people: President Chirac wanted France to adopt the constitution, but will vote against it now the people have spoken.

I'll vote tomorrow and it will be a yes. I live close to the border and I hope this constitution will make life a bit easier and pave the way to less different rules in each country.
I am a bit weary though. For instance, the Dutch pay the most money per head to the EU. We pay 480 euros each year, whilest France and Germany only pay about 27 euro. And Belgium recieves 48 euro per head. Noone has been able to explain this to me yet, and it doesn't look like that's going to change soon.

Still, I think the greater good is important. All those little countries don't weigh in when it comes to international decision making. We are better of as a greater whole. I do wonder how long it will take before Europe is really united.

[Eagle]

Cat, thanks for your reply!!! It's great to be able to get a European perspective on this, especially from Holland where the voting will be taking place so soon! I suppose Chirac has no choice but to reflect the will of the people when he votes on the Constitution. From what I've read so far, it appears a vote wasn't mandatory in France, so it appears that he made a serious miscalculation in allowing a vote.

I tend to agree with you that Europe is ultimately "better off as a greater whole". I wonder if the French response was perhaps a "knee jerk" reaction resulting from the short term problems of unemployment and so on that they are experiencing right now? The E.U. is still a young organization, and it's too bad they didn't allow time to smooth out the minor difficulties (which are to be expected, as Europe realigns itself to a new reality). I think "growing pains" are perfectly normal with something as large as the E.U., and it's possible the decision by the French will come back to haunt them in a detrimental way in future (in other words, they may have "shot themselves in the foot", so to speak).

Even if the vote is "No" in the Netherlands as well, I suspect the E.U. beauracrats will find some way around it. I just can't imagine Europe reverting to it's previous state!

Cheers!!!

[WillTravel]

For those of us going to Europe, the Euro has fallen a fair bit in the last couple days or so. I wonder if it will fall even further after the Dutch vote?

[Cat]

The Dutch voted against the constitution with 61% (39% were in favour). It's a shame, really.

I believe the Netherlands (as are other countries in the EU) are too small a country to really weigh in on global issues. We are better off as part of a bigger group.

The trouble with the referendum was that the parties who were against the constitution were much better in promoting their views and explaining why. The people in favour didn't do so well in their promotion campaigns.

This Dutch 'no'vote is also a vote against the governement rather than a vote against the EU. It does look like the governement will respect the peoples wishes though.

[uktrail]

Everyone (ie, politicians, media) is talking about the Constitution, but nobody has ever told us what it says! I have today discovered for the first time a website (part of the Guardian) where the Constitution is actually printed -- and it took some searching.

Cat -- did the Dutch people all receive a copy of the Constitution, or at least a leaflet explaining what it says?

[Cat]

uktrail said:

Everyone (ie, politicians, media) is talking about the Constitution, but nobody has ever told us what it says! I have today discovered for the first time a website (part of the Guardian) where the Constitution is actually printed -- and it took some searching.

Cat -- did the Dutch people all receive a copy of the Constitution, or at least a leaflet explaining what it says?

We recived a rather extensive leaflet that contained a summary of the Constitution. It also contained information about where the people could get a copy of the whole thing. I read the leaflet, but it's quit a difficult read. I don't think anyone has informed the public well and that's why a lot of people voted for the wrong reasons.

I heard this in an interview: I voted 'no' because this time my opinion matters!

[me]

well, the EU summit meeting last night seems not to have helped matters.

hope they can work it out. EU certainly has the potential to be a powerful partner for world peace.

- d