Will the Euro and the British pound rise or fall?

[WillTravel]

I'm driving myself crazy with pointless speculation, so I thought I would invite others to do the same. :-)

What are anyone's thoughts on whether the Euro and GBP will rise or fall, particularly by summer?

I'm interested in speculation comparing these against the US dollar, or the Canadian dollar (or whatever currency matters most to you.

My speculation:
If I prepay now in Canadian dollars, the Euro and pound will drop and I will kick myself.
If I do not prepay now in Canadian dollars, the Euro and pound will rise and I will kick myself. :-)

[me]

how the dollar will rise & fall is a big question. and, no one knows the answer!

many months ago, i was sure the Euro would rise - which it did, but much later than i expected, and much less.

the way the Bush team talks, some say "let the market decide," while others - including 43 himself - say "we will defend the strong dollar." the markets react to this, and change acordingly.

the short answer: no one knows what the market will decide. economics was one of my majors at college. psychology might have been a better field of study to understand ForEx!

- d

[LHR02]

Well, I am not an ecomomist by any means..... ;D but the current US administration does not at all seem involved in making for a strong dollar. Greenspans latest 'dissertations' on this seem to point to the fact that they are willing to let it ride as the markets dictate. Nothing I have seen or read to date seem to indicate any 'corrective' action is likely in the near furture. I would not bet on a strong recovery in the next few months....but what do I know? Only what my portfolios tell me. ;D And they say not to look for UK or Euro 'bargains' in the future.

[Jordo]

I know where your coming from Will, My trip will be march-May 2005 and if things keep going the way it is, its going to cost me a HUGE fortune to go on my beloved trip =D . iv been reserching all the trends and such. what iv noticed every year our dollar(US) Depreciates by about 40 cents . starting in 2002 when the euro 1st came out we were about USD1:EU130 and now its flipped so if things go the way they have been steadly gonig for the past 2 years w/o exception i personally beleve it will depreciate about another 25-35 cents on the dollar making it a HUGE cost. if the euro is getting worse by the day, i shutter to think how much that damn pound is going to be in a years time. no wonder why the brits love my Florida, they are millionares here! Lemme know your thoughts so i can get a better understanding of whats going on, cause my poor high school math is prolly rusty by now.

[logan461]

The US dollar will remain around the same area because the economy is stablizing. However, it may continue to rise because this is an election year and the uncertainty is not very good for the Dollar. So it is just one of those things where you will get lucky or not.

[Jordo]

So my offical guess would be about 10 cents lower from what is it now (1.USD to .78Euros

[mooseontheloose]

lol we Canadians know your pain all to well. Welcome to our lives Nothings really changed for us as our dollar has got a little better but nothing amazing. The one thing I'm hoping for (other than a slight drop in the Euro) is that the US dollar stays stable or weakens until I leave cause I am going to be buying my train tickets in American dollars which is going to save me a fortune compared to even 1 year ago. But hey we'd all love a Euro drop!

[newtothis]

Im wondering if anybody thinks it is worth buying my Euro's now for my trip in may, or rather instead I should invest in the american Dollar until then, in hopes of a better exchange rate?

[Jordo]

Bassicly what iv noted the prices are up and down all the time. americans economy is kinda nasty at the moment and its an election year so its not so hot, so this year i dont see our money getting too much stronger.My trip isnt till mar-may 2005 so i would be stupid to get my euros this early, but if my trip was in a few months id go ahead and get it because better sooner then later..So personally if I were you Id get it it within few weeks.but since im realtivly new at this, im prob WAY off.
but dont take my word for it, id reserch trends, talk to your local bank officers or something along that sort to get some stone information to make your own decision

[me]

this is a common misconception. the Euro actually has existed since 1999, but didn't have bills for the first 3 years. when it 1st came out, 1 Jan 1999, it's value was much higher. like, EU1.25 to the US$. it lost a LOT of value in its 1st 3 years. since then, the tables have turned yet again.

Jordo said:

<snip>starting in 2002 when the euro 1st came out we were about USD1:EU130 and now its flipped<snip>

[Michelle]

I'm not sure, but I think most people would agree that you don't want to go ahead and buy ALL the Euros you will need for your trip before you go... You don't want to show up to Europe with all your money exchanged already... That would mean you are carrying around a HUGE lump sum of money in your backpack, which is NOT a wise thing to do... "THEFT" is the first thing that comes to mind!!! What you may want to do is exchange just enough Euros to last you for the first few days so you don't have to worry about finding a bank or a money exchange right away... Just my two cents....

[me]

since ATM's are all over the place, the best way to get cash in Europe is with those ATM's.

i've written about this a lot in the past.